INTELLIGENCE ISSN 1245-2122 N. 378, 22 January 2001 Every Two to Three Weeks Next Issue on 5 February 2001 Publishing since 1980 Editor Olivier Schmidt (email intelligence-adi@wanadoo.fr; web http://www.blythe.org/Intelligence) TABLE OF CONTENTS, N. 378, 22 January 2001 FRONT PAGE WORLD-WIDE - CIA 2015 & THE COMING REAL WORLD p.1 TECHNOLOGY AND TECHNIQUES US NIJ SNIFFER GUIDE & BRITISH DEVICE p.2 THE FINE ART OF GARBAGEOLOGY p.3 DERA'S DEDICATED "THERMOBARIC" GRENADE p.4 GARBLED INPUT FOR BRIT CRIMINAL RECORDS p.5 COMPUTERS - Saddam's Explosive PlayStation. p.6 PEOPLE GREAT BRITAIN - SIR MICHAEL HANLEY p.7 NORTHERN IRELAND - NEIL MULHOLLAND p.8 RUSSIA - VIKTOR MAKAROV p.9 AGENDA COMING EVENTS THROUGH 1 MARCH 2001 p.10 INTELLIGENCE AROUND THE WORLD USA - OIL & BRITS POOR MIX ON WEST COAST p.11 - CIA'S OVERBEARING SECRECY GETS IT IN TROUBLE p.12 - Holiday Season at the CIA. p.13 - FBI & CIA GET A NEW JOINT CI-21 p.14 - FBI GOING AFTER LEE & CUBANS p.15 - FBI's Disaster Squad. p.16 - New Books on the FBI. p.17 - Pope Affair Leaves Canada Holding the Bag. p.18 GREAT BRITAIN - NEW CHINOOK CRASH THEORY, SAME OLD COVER-UP p.19 - MAXIMUM EMBARRASSMENT FOR MI6 p.20 - NEW YEAR HONOURS ROLE FOR SPIES p.21 - THE "HARD REALITY" OF POLICE CORRUPTION p.22 - EX-SPOOK TACKLES DOLE SCROUNGERS p.23 FRANCE - COMPARATIVE INTERNAL SECURITY & OTHER BOOKS p.24 GERMANY - FALSE "SPY FLAP" WITH BELGIUM p.25 ITALY - THE BRUTAL DEATH OF ROBERTO CALVI p.26 CYPRUS/SINGAPORE - BRITAIN'S SECRET NUCLEAR ARMS SITES p.27 BALKANS - Poor Depeleted Uranium "Takes the Rap". p.28 RUSSIA - OBUKHOV VERDICT OVERTURNED p.29 ZIMBABWE - WHO'S AFRAID OF THE CIO? p.30 SOUTHERN AFRICA - INTELLIGENCE SHAKEDOWNS & MIX UPS p.31 MIDDLE EAST - BIN LADEN AS A LOUSY EMPLOYER p.32 NEW ZEALAND - "SOLDIER FIVE" PUBLICATION POSTPONED p.33 --------------------------------------------- Intelligence, N. 378, 22 January 2001, p. 1 WORLD-WIDE THE CIA'S 2015 & THE COMING REAL WORLD ...(cut)... COMMENT -- It should be noted that the CIA study is very heavily based on the concept of "globalization" which is still lacking a universally accepted definition. One social scientist studying the term has stated that "globalization" has simply replaced the over-used term, "development", which, in turn, replaced the worn-out term, "progress". It would be helpful to replace all occurrences of "globalization" in the CIA report with an unknown value, "X", that has to be defined each time it is used. Although the report tends to recognize that "US global influence wanes", it does not seem to take into account that "domestic" developments in the US -- the Jewish lobby, the Old China crowd, the Christian fundamentalists, Black Americans, Mexican Americans -- are not going to "ride out events" in any rational or neutral manner. The current right-wing fanatic reaction against China and the scandalous treatment of US nuclear scientist, Wen Ho Lee, provide a clear example of how "domestic" events can easily influence -- even determine -- international developments, a process the report conveniently sidelines. The "domestic" political backing of the US alliance with Israel is another example of a major conflict whose evolution is not being determined on the international scene but inside the United States. Not factoring in "domestic" US developments and only looking abroad is the chief weakness of the CIA report. Indeed, many foreign specialists see one of the near future's major problems and source of conflict as the increasing gap between rich and poor in the US and other "domestic" US instabilities. But then, that's the FBI's problem and not the CIA's. ...(cut)... --------------------------------------------- Intelligence, N. 378, 22 January 2001, p. 3 THE FINE ART OF GARBAGEOLOGY On 26 November, the "Sunday Times" published a leaked memo written by Jonathan Powell, British Prime Minister Tony Blair's top aide -- effectively his "chief of staff" -- containing a series of more-or-less decipherable jottings on a variety of subjects. The emergence of the memo, claimed the "Sunday Times", was indicative of a high-level "mole" inside Downing Street -- something widely touted in the media during the last few months. This disingenuous story belied what the "Sunday Times" knew very well: that the memo had -- with cat food and nappy contents thoughtfully scraped off -- been recovered from Powell's domestic rubbish. ...(cut)... --------------------------------------------- Intelligence, N. 378, 22 January 2001, p. 6 COMPUTERS - Saddam's Explosive PlayStation. According to a recent US Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) report, Iraq may have bought up to 4,000 Sony PlayStation 2 video game machines. The processor in the PlayStation 2 runs at 300 MHz and uses a 128-bit CPU and has more powerful graphic capabilities than many graphic workstations. Moreover, they are made to be linked by a local-area network (LAN) to give a modest but capable parallel processor that could be used for simulations in nuclear weapons development. The PlayStations are a lot easier to obtain and cause less interest than powerful conventional computers. --------------------------------------------- Intelligence, N. 378, 22 January 2001, p. 18 USA - Pope Affair Leaves Canada Holding the Bag. John Mintz's 4 January article in the "Washington Post" left Canada "holding the bag" for the Edmond Pope spy affair and the Western attempt to get a Russian 500kph Shkval rocket-propelled torpedo. Mintz, very disingenuously, claims the US was a "junior partner" in the affair which was run by ... Canada. Neither Mintz nor any other journalist every asked the question of what Canada would do with a Shkval -- other than sell it to the US -- or why Canada wanted a Shkval so badly. At 500kph, no one, not even three-meter-tall Russian superheros, can "guide" a Shkval: it's aims, shoot and pray. So the target has to be big, real big ... like a Nimitz class aircraft carrier or a large missile- launching submarine. The US has plenty ... Canada has none! In short, if Canada was involved at all, its was acting as a "cut- out" for other Western services and probably the US. After all, the list of places in the world where the Shkval could effectively be used is topped by the Taiwan Straits. Taking "pot shots" with Shkvals at US carriers and submarines from mainland China would make an invasion of Taiwan almost possible. --------------------------------------------- Intelligence, N. 378, 22 January 2001, p. 24 FRANCE COMPARATIVE INTERNAL SECURITY & OTHER BOOKS In the last few weeks, "Intelligence" has, curiously enough, been asked to recommend "comparative studies of intelligence in democratic societies" by various specialists. We still highly recommend the French Senat Service des Affaires Europeennes, "Le Secret de la Defense Nationale Devant le Juge" (number LC 35, 21 pp.), a "Senate Working Document" of the Comparative Legislation Series, which we described as "a unique and singularly worthwhile study" (see "France - 'Secret Defense' Studies & Legislation", INT, n. 327 28). Another similar study has just been published: Francois Thuillier, "L'Europe du Secret - Mythes et Realites du Renseignement Politique Interne" (2000, La Documentation Francaise, Paris, isbn 2 11 004623 6, footnotes, bibliography, 271 pp.) which is coproduced by the French Interior Ministry's official think-tank, the Institut des Hautes Etudes de la Securite Interieure (IHESI). As such, it is full of useful information but rather dry and tends to avoid the real questions of what is European internal security. If that subject, and the current passionate debate surrounding it, is what interests you, then you should probably refer to the French Senat study. ...(cut)... --------------------------------------------- Intelligence, N. 378, 22 January 2001, p. 25 GERMANY FALSE "SPY FLAP" WITH BELGIUM On 2 January, "De Morgen" caused some trouble by deflating a major Belgian-Germany spy flap: according to the Belgian newspaper, "Standaard" the German Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND) tried to obtain advanced language technologies in Belgium through a network of front companies http://www.heise.de/tp/english/inhalt/te/4607/1.html ...(cut)... --------------------------------------------- Intelligence, N. 378, 22 January 2001, p. 27 CYPRUS/SINGAPORE BRITAIN'S SECRET NUCLEAR ARMS SITES Recently declassified British government documents have confirmed that the UK, like the US, secretly deployed nuclear weapons abroad during the Cold War without informing the governments of the host countries. Details of the deployment and storage of nuclear weapons -- at RAF Akrotiri in southern Cyprus in 1960 and in 1962 at RAF Tengah, in Singapore -- are contained in a report by historian, Richard Moore, published earlier this month in the Chicago-based journal, "Bulletin of Atomic Scientists" (BAS), which states that neither Cypriot leader Archbishop Makarios, nor Tunku Abdul Rahman, prime minister of Malaysia (which administered Singapore) were told of the joint Ministry of Defence (MoD)/Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) decision to store tactical nuclear weapons on their soil, although senior British diplomats serving in both countries were aware of the "strategic deployments". ...(cut)... --------------------------------------------- Intelligence, N. 378, 22 January 2001, p. 28 BALKANS - Poor Depeleted Uranium "Takes the Rap". It looks like Kosovar leader, Ibrahim Rugova, may have the clearest explanation for the crisis provoked in the Balkans by the use of depeleted uranium during the war. According to him, it's all "propaganda" to get Western troops out of the region. The Russian armed forces chief of staff had another original explanation: the US wanted to "get rid of the stuff" so they used it to shoot at Serbs. Western intelligence had an equally original response: they're investigating to see if the "Balkan Syndrome" is not caused by secret weapons used by Milosevic's forces in Kosovo. Nonetheless, it is true the inhaling depleted uranium -- and the accompanying plutonium -- is very bad for your health, but then, so is war. --------------------------------------------- Intelligence, N. 378, 22 January 2001, p. 31 SOUTHERN AFRICA INTELLIGENCE SHAKEDOWNS & MIX UPS One of the three armed rebel factions opposed to the regime of former Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) President, Laurent Desire Kabila, the Congolese Rally for Democracy (RCD), has reorganized its leadership in Goma. Out is the stodgy Marxist, Emile Ilunga, and in is the youngster, Adolphe Onusumba Yemba (36). Before Kabila's recent death, Ilunga stood accused of a stagnating leadership style, flagging enthusiasm in preparing against Kabila and payoffs from former loyalists of Zairian President, Mobutu Setse Seko. ...(cut)... --------------------------------------------- Intelligence, N. 378, 22 January 2001, p. 32 MIDDLE EAST BIN LADEN AS A LOUSY EMPLOYER The world's most wanted man is a lousy employer, according to an extraordinary affidavit filed in the Federal Court of Canada. It portrays fugitive Saudi terrorist chieftain, Osama Bin Laden, as a hard-nosed businessman who pays his staff buttons and fails to refund their expenses. Mohamed Zeki Mahjoub, 40, says a man he met in a mosque in Khartoum, the capital of the Sudan, got him a job interview with the bearded extremist, who owns a number of businesses there, in 1992. "Osama bin Laden met me personally," his affidavit says. "He prefers to interview personally those people who will be in charge of projects ... He further told me that he needs to assess the persons personally and that it is not enough to assess the person's academic qualifications." The multi-millionaire Saudi fundamentalist hired Egyptian-born Mahjoub to run Al-Damazin Farms, a million-acre irrigation project with 4,000 employees owned by Al-Thimar Al-Mubaraka, a key Bin Laden company in the region. ...(cut)... --------------------------------------------- Intelligence, N. 378, 22 January 2001, p. 33 NEW ZEALAND "SOLDIER FIVE" PUBLICATION POSTPONED A decision to allow the former head of MI5, Dame Stella Rimington, to publish her memoirs, has been postponed following an announcement by British Ministry of Defence (MoD) lawyers in New Zealand, on 22 December, that they would appeal against the 5 December ruling by Judge Peter Salmon, to allow the publication of a book, "Soldier Five", by former NZ SAS trooper known as "Mike Coburn", about the Gulf War Bravo Two Zero mission. The British MoD had argued that Coburn was in breach of a "contract of confidentiality" before he left the British Armed Forces. However, Judge Salmon ruled that it was unlawful for the MoD to order the West Aucklander to give up his civil rights once he had left the SAS, and that the contract he had signed, under economic pressure, was "illegitimate and so constituted duress". ...(cut)...