INTELLIGENCE ISSN 1245-2122 N. 64 New Series, 14 July 1997 Publishing since 1980 Editor Olivier Schmidt (email intelligence-adi@wanadoo.fr; web http://www.blythe.org/Intelligence) TABLE OF CONTENTS, N. 64, 14 July 1997 FRONTPAGE GREAT BRITAIN/SAUDI ARABIA - JONATHAN AITKEN "TWISTS SLOWLY IN THE WIND" p.1 TECHNOLOGY AND TECHNIQUES HIGH-TECH CYBER COP NOW OUT ON THE BEAT p.2 BAD PLASTIC BULLET TECH GETS COVERUP & BLOW BACK p.3 DIFFERENT APPROACHES TO INTERNET CENSORSHIP p.4 ANTITERRORISM - New Resources and Training. p.5 BOMBS - Hand Grenade Light Bulb "Booby Trap". p.6 MASINT - Beta Testing at the U.S. Army. p.7 CRYPTOGRAPHY - U.S. Government Confronts the World. p.8 STUN DEVICES - Not the Usual Pros and Cons. p.9 PEOPLE U.S.A./GREAT BRITAIN - IAN SPIRO p.10 RUSSIA - VADIM "VALERI" SINTSOV p.11 MEXICO - AMADO CARRILLO FUENTES p.12 SAUDI ARABIA/GREAT BRITAIN - WAFIC SAID p.13 U.S.A. - William H. Webster. p.14 U.S.A. - Thomas Graham. p.15 SPAIN - Juan Alberto Perote. p.16 SLOVAKIA - Peter Nemec. p.17 RUSSIA - Alexander Korzhakov. p.18 GEORGIA - Shota Kviraya. p.19 AGENDA COMING EVENTS THROUGH 30 SEPTEMBER 1997 p.20 INTELLIGENCE AROUND THE WORLD U.S.A. - PLAYING CAT-AND-MOUSE WITH HANI AL-SAYEGH p.21 Customs "Bags" Lithuanian Middlemen. p.22 Storm Brewing over Border Shooting. p.23 GREAT BRITAIN - WANNABE SPIES PROGRESS p.24 "BOBBIES" ATTACK "GHETTOS" AND DEFENCE p.25 SAUDI AL-YAMAMAH DEAL MAY BE REEXAMINED p.26 NORTHERN IRELAND - VERY HIGH PRICE FOR "LESSER OF TWO EVILS" p.27 IRELAND - SECRET BRIT ATOMIC DUMP AT SEA CONFIRMED p.28 FRANCE - STRANGE SLAVIC BEDFELLOWS IN ALGERIAN DESERT p.29 U.S. "Muddying the Waters" in Algeria. p.30 GERMANY - STATE SECRETS PUBLISHING SPREE p.31 ITALY - Troops to Rescue ... the Communists. p.32 BOSNIA - SECRET SERB ARMS ACCOUNTS IN SWITZERLAND p.33 RUSSIA - HIDING BEHIND "ORGANIZED CRIME" FOR THE PKK p.34 ISRAEL/PALESTINE - DIFFERENT POLICE & SPY METHODS p.35 IRAQ - SADDAM HUSSEIN CHANGES SPY BOSSES p.36 AUSTRALIA - SAS Training Schedule. p.37 --------------------------------------------- Intelligence, N. 64, 14 July 1997, p. 2 HIGH-TECH CYBER COP NOW OUT ON THE BEAT In Texas and Vancouver, computer-based law enforcement tools have been locally developed, are being tested, and are on their way to a promising future. The Texas Transportation Institute, specialized in traffic-flow studies and guardrails or street signals designs, is looking for backing from high-tech companies to put Advanced Law Enforcement Response Technology (Alert) on the market. The police patrol car-borne computer system, developed with Texas Agriculture and Military (A&M) University in College Station, was recently unveiled, integrated into two prototype vehicles which are being tested "on the beat". The Institute and the University need $7 million over the next two years to fully develop and test Alert, and try to get it on the market by the end of 1999. The project is overseen by Bill Baker for the Federal Highway Administration which paid $1.7 million for initial research as part of a 1994 project to find a way to speed up the transfer of accident information to the Department of Transportation. Alert project manager, Sandra Parsons, says the system consolidates all police patrol car functions -- radio, lights, sirens and radar -- and acts as a rapid data link and data- storage device for such basic operations as filing accident reports and watching for wanted criminals and missing children. By swiping a Texas driver's license through the system's bar- code reader, Alert automatically fills out requested forms, and additional information, including a driver's signature, can be added with an electronic pen on a hand-held computer pad linked to the system. In early June, the Smithsonian Institution recognized Alert for its technological accomplishments, and several federal agencies, including the FBI and Secret Service, have expressed interest in the system. "North of the border", in Vancouver, geographic information system (GIS) data and direct marketing have been linked by computer to produce Orion, a new law-enforcement tool. This locally-developed geographic "profiling" system enables police to analyze vast quantities of information -- psychological profiles, aerial photos, postal codes, motor vehicle licensing information, letters from criminals, census data and land-use records -- to find out where a serial criminal is most likely to live. The new Vancouver Police Department Geographic Profiling Section, headed by Detective Inspector Kim Rossmo, helped develop the Orion system which manages "mail-outs" to the targeted areas with requests for further information and descriptions of wanted suspects. According to Rossmo, "We've even been successful getting mail-outs into the offender's home, with interesting results." Orion software performs a spatial analysis of the furnished data and produces a three-dimensional "jeopardy surface" which is a multicolored map highlighting the most probable target areas. It "gives you an optimal searching path for the area," according to Rossmo who developed a prototype of Orion after receiving a doctorate at Simon Fraser University where environmental criminologists Paul and Patricia Brantingham had developed a model showing that where a criminal lives affects where he is likely to commit a crime. Rossmo worked the other way around, trying to show that "most offenders commit crimes in their `comfort zone,' which is often not far from where they live", the conceptual basis for Orion whose "jeopardy surface" highlights the probable "comfort zone" of an individual criminal. Orion is being marketed by Environmental Criminology Research in Vancouver and the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) has already signed a $225,000 contract to buy the system which has the tremendous advantage of being compatible with the RCMP's Violent Crime Linkage Analysis System (ViCLAS) database which links crimes committed over a period of time or in apparently unrelated locations. The Ontario Provincial Police is supposedly "very interested" in Orion, and Rossmo is reportedly swamped with requests from other police forces. He reportedly helped British police and New York City police to successfully investigate series of rapes. But Rossmo can't handle all the requests that come in, since each case requires about two weeks work, but other Canadian specialists are now being trained to use Orion. --------------------------------------------- Intelligence, N. 64, 14 July 1997, p. 29 FRANCE STRANGE SLAVIC BEDFELLOWS IN ALGERIAN DESERT During the Cold War, France's main claim to fame as a "world power" was that a Russian (Soviet) special forces Spetsnaz paratrooper's major Western European target was France's Plateau Albion in the Alps foothills and destroying France's nuclear missile silos there before launches took place. Another "world power" status symbol was France's Slavic- language-speaking deep-penetration reconnaissance and special forces paratroops such as the 13eme Regiment de Dragon Parachutistes (13e RDP; INT n.55 17) and the former Commandos de Recherche de d'Action en Profondeur (CRAP; INT, n.52 35), now the Groupement de Commandos Parachutistes (GCP). In short, the Spetsnaz, the 13eme Dragon and the CRAP/GCP were Cold War mortal enemies, bred and raised to eliminate each other. They will soon be sharing campfires and bedrolls in Saharan oases in southern Algeria in joint maneuvers and training with Russian Interior Ministry Alfa or A Units and Polish special forces units from the State Protection Service (UOP) and the GROM. In short, the Cold War has really ended, even in the special forces. COMMENT -- The explanation for such strange bedfellows romping through the Sahara Desert is quite simple, according to a specialist contacted by "Intelligence". Poland's classic military forces are now being integrated into NATO, but there were serious questions about what to do with special forces and "Praetorian guard" security units formed and trained by the "old structures". Apparently at French President Jacques Chirac's insistence, the U.S. accepted that French intelligence and special forces act as the "bridge" between these formerly feared Communist shock troops and NATO. There is apparently also an "intelligence cooperation annex" to this agreement. But working only with Polish special forces serves no purpose if they remain faithful to their former Spetsnaz professors and leaders. So with typical French "panache and flair", Paris decided to invite the whole lot for training maneuvers in Algeria to "test their mettle" and carry out some close quarters "observation". Of course, the Poles and Russians will be doing the same. The only one not particularly happy with the arrangement is German intelligence which was one of the most effective backers of Poland's NATO candidacy. Germany was relishing the possibility, for the first time in over a half century, of having military allies both to the West and the East (instead of Russian divisions). Now Germany will have French intelligence well-established on both its major borders and, above all, in its own Eastern European "back yard" where there is already trouble with the French (see "Germany - Dialogue with Hungary Censored by ... France"; INT, n. 63 30). The question of using the Sahara Desert in Algeria, when that country is in the midst of a bloody internal conflict, didn't seem to bother any of the countries involved, including Algeria, which apparently sees the maneuvers as a source of reinforced ties with allies both East and West. The Spetsnaz troops, trained to fight the French troops, will be training with them. One specialist sarcastically told "Intelligence" that at least the Spetsnaz will be fed and furnished with live ammo by their French hosts which is more than they can expect back home. --------------------------------------------- Intelligence, N. 64, 14 July 1997, p. 33 BOSNIA SECRET SERB ARMS ACCOUNTS IN SWITZERLAND The former Bosnian Serb leader, Dr. Radovan Karadzic, secured a $60 million loan against the Republika Srpska's only oil refinery, at Brod, in an attempt to purchase weapons which would have defeated the Bosnian Muslim forces, according to reports in the local Srpska newspaper, "Alternativia" and the Zurich-based weekly magazine "Facts". The reports are based on information from the Swiss Justice Ministry, after investigators discovered an account -- no. 3093/230/102 -- used by Dr. Karadzic with the Banco de Gottardo, in Lugano, Switzerland. The investigation began after Italian detectives raided a number of houses in Torre Annunziata, near Naples, following the arrest of two arms dealers, an Italian, Lorenzo Mazzega, and the representative of a Liberian company, Orbal Marketing Services (OMS), Nicholas Alexander Oman. Although the deal was negotiated by Dr. Karadzic through a Liechtenstein-based financial services company, the contract was signed by Mr. Oman on behalf of OMS, and Branko Petric, currently Srpska's Justice Minister, in the capital Pale in early 1995. Italian detectives have evidence which indicates that the Bosnian Serb warlord intended to purchase Russian-made Smerch ground-to-ground solid fuel-propelled rockets with a range of 65 kilometers. They can be fired in 14-rocket clusters, each with a 350 kg explosive warhead, from an eight-wheel launch transporter. Dr. Karadzic's wish-list also included a Russian- designed fuel-air bomb which could be launched using Smerch rockets (or a North Korean or Chinese commercially-available ground-to-ground system), similar to those used by the USAF to clear minefields during the 1991 Gulf War. --------------------------------------------- Intelligence, N. 64, 14 July 1997, p. 35 ISRAEL/PALESTINE DIFFERENT POLICE & SPY METHODS Over the last few months, various press reports have revealed interesting and contrasting aspects of the Israeli and the Palestinian approaches to law enforcement, intelligence and security. The Israelis have turned largely to their U.S. counterparts and to a few Eastern European specialists for law enforcement expertise. On 6 March, the Greek Minister of Public Security announced that Greece had agreed to train Palestinian police in anti-terrorism and anti-drug operations. The Greek services and the Palestinian services have known each other and exchanged information for many years. In May, Denmark announced it was contributing $2.5 million for the construction of the Palestinian police academy in Jericho. Other donors include the Netherlands, Germany and Sweden. In intelligence, Israeli services were largely formed "in the field" during clandestine operations in World War II against the Nazis in Europe and against British intelligence in postwar Palestine. According to Israeli intelligence specialist, Israel Shabak, Shin Beth or Shabak has been corrupted by twenty years of absolute rule over the two million inhabitants of the Occupied Territories, while Aman military intelligence, by sticking largely to technical intelligence, has avoided the deep corruption prevalent in Shin Beth. Also, since "Shabak and Mossad often murder", there is a gap between them and Aman that doesn't murder, "at least not by itself". Since Yasser Arafat and his security and intelligence services have "been patronized mostly by the Shabak" and "murderers tend to admire other murderers", ties have developed between Shin Bet and Mossad, on one hand, and Palestinian services on the other, but not between the latter and Aman. The result is that there is a serious difference between policies advocated by Shin Bet and Mossad, and those backed by Aman. For example, Mossad clearly favored the Israeli invasion of Lebanon which Aman opposed. This situation has generated extensive infighting and no Israeli prime minister has apparently managed to get the intelligence services to work in a coordinated manner. The intimacy between political power and intelligence also makes it impossible for clear-cut decisions, and, in spite of impressive intelligence collection, has helped generate some of Israel's great intelligence failures due to the lack of good analysis. Arafat's main problem in intelligence and security is trying to keep a balance between aging "veterans of the armed struggle" or "returnees", who fill the officer ranks of PLO military units and the new Palestinian police and security services, and the young "graduates of the Intifada" who didn't "learn the tools of trade" from the PLO. The aging "returnees" are of little use in trying to penetrate the Occupied Territories and set up new networks. And since Arafat can't trust "Intifadaists", he set up several different rival security services, trying to balance them one against the other. Nonetheless, the "returnees" are gradually establishing their superiority. Moreover, many of these men know their Israeli counterparts well and can use these contacts as political leverage or to have a few "dirty tricks" pulled against rival "Intifadaists". In short, with protagonists who have known and fought each other for so long, it looks much more like an "internal feud" than an "international conflict". ---------------------------------------------