SUMMARY VERSION INTELLIGENCE ISSN 1245-2122 N. 90 New Series, 14 December 1998 Every Two to Three Weeks Next Issue on 11 January 1999 Publishing since 1980 Editor Olivier Schmidt (email intelligence-adi@wanadoo.fr; web http://www.blythe.org/Intelligence) EXCLUSIVE REPORTS IN INTELLIGENCE ITALY - SILVIO BERLUSCONI, THE MAFIA AND "GRAND MEDIATORS," (N. 5) FRANCE - REPORT ON THE "DIRECTION DU RENSEIGNEMENT MILITAIRE" (N. 16) SLOVAKIA - REACHING WEST WHILE SLIDING EAST (N. 51) SOUTH AFRICA - EXECUTIVE OUTCOMES OR DIAMONDS ARE A GRUNT'S BEST FRIEND (N. 55) BULGARIA - A FIERY "FAR-WEST" FORTNIGHT IN SOFIA (N. 63) GREAT BRITAIN/SAUDI ARABIA - JONATHAN AITKEN "TWISTS SLOWLY IN THE WIND" (N. 64) ENVIRONMENTAL MOVEMENT & COVERT ACTION (N. 73) EXECUTIVE OUTCOMES & SANDLINE FORGE ON ... FOR PROFIT (N. 82) --------------------------------------------- TABLE OF CONTENTS, N. 90, 14 December 1998 FRONT PAGE NETHERLANDS - DEFUNCT IDB MAKES THE BEST-SELLER LIST p.1 TECHNOLOGY AND TECHNIQUES COMPUTER TECHNOLOGY, RISKS & SECURITY p.2 US COUNTERFEIT & ANTI-COUNTERFEIT p.3 NEW SECURITY EQUIPMENT & NEW PROBLEMS p.4 PEOPLE USA - JAMES R. CLAPPER, JR. p.5 GREAT BRITAIN - JONATHAN AITKEN p.6 GREAT BRITAIN/RUSSIA - DAVID OWEN p.7 PEOPLE - Open Source Intelligence p.8 AGENDA COMING EVENTS THROUGH 31 JANUARY 1999 p.9 INTELLIGENCE AROUND THE WORLD USA - SSCI "NOSES IN" ON CIA-HUGHES-CHINA AFFAIRS p.10 Open Source Intelligence p.11 GREAT BRITAIN - WHO DARES PUBLISHES ... SAS HISTORY p.12 NORTHERN IRELAND - THREAT TO THE PEACE PROCESS p.13 FRANCE - STRANGE USES OF THE PRESS ON INTELLIGENCE p.14 GERMANY - OLD AND NEW IN FOREIGN INTELLIGENCE p.15 WESTERN EUROPE - Open Source Intelligence p.16 EASTERN EUROPE - Open Source Intelligence. p.17 LATIN AMERICA - Open Source Intelligence. p.18 AFRICA - Open Source Intelligence. p.19 ISRAEL - ENEMIES WITHIN AND WITHOUT p.20 MIDDLE EAST - Open Source Intelligence. p.21 ASIA - Open Source Intelligence. p.22 --------------------------------------------- FRONT PAGE Intelligence, N. 90, 14 December 1998, p. 1 NETHERLANDS DEFUNCT IDB MAKES THE BEST SELLER LIST In our last issue, we mentioned that the history -- and failure -- of the Inlichtingendienst Buitenland (IDB) foreign intelligence service was the subject of a recently-published book entitled "Villa Maarheeze - De Geshiendenis Van De Inlichtingendienst Buitenland 1946-94" (Villa Maarheeze. The Netherlands Foreign Intelligence Service), by Bob de Graaf and Cees Wiebes (INT, n. 89 18). De Graaff is a historian and Wiebes is a senior lecturer at the Department of Political Science of the University of Amsterdam and a free-lance author. The ill-fated IDB made the news earlier this year (see "Netherlands - Former Spies Referred to Employment Agency", INT, n. 75 18) when the Start temporary employment agency obtained a contract with the Dutch government to seek new jobs for 30 former IDB employees. Last year, the former spies were invited to apply for a job with the new-model IDB, which opened shop under the auspices of the Binnenlandse Veiligheidsdienst (BVD) internal security service and the Militaire Inlichtingen Dienst (MID) military intelligence service. However, the invitation turned out to be an empty promise, since the BVD and MID clearly had no intention of bringing the old hands back on board, preferring instead to entrust twenty of their own spooks with reviving Dutch foreign intelligence as a new branch. So far, the only former IDB employee taken on by the MID is a female interpreter, probably of some exotic language in demand. (...) --------------------------------------------- Intelligence, N. 90, 14 December 1998, p. 3 US COUNTERFEIT & ANTI-COUNTERFEIT On 25 November in Boaz, Alabama, police and merchants were worried after finding five counterfeit $100 bills of the new series 1996 type, which is supposed to be more difficult to fake (INT, n. 60 8 & n. 68 5). One officer said that the counterfeits were some of the best he had ever seen, but merchants said they thought counterfeit detector pens offered some insurance against the fake bills. Throughout the US, many mass transit vending machines are rejecting new, anti-counterfeit $20 bills because the machines are not adapted to the new series 1996 Federal Reserve notes. On 15 September, the Treasury Department recognized that "vending machines used by local and regional transit systems, as well as some US Postal Service offices, may not be fully able to accept the new notes in the first few months." The new anti-counterfeit US passport is now being issued. It has a digitized photograph, and a digitized data page covered with a security film including a hologram-like built-in image, and sophisticated microprinting throughout. Although US embassies abroad will continue to issue the old type of passports, all domestic passport agencies will be issuing the --------------------------------------------- INTELLIGENCE AROUND THE WORLD Intelligence, N. 90, 14 December 1998, p. 10 USA SSCI "NOSES IN" ON CIA-HUGHES-CHINA AFFAIRS On 5 December, the "Washington Post", the "New York Times" and CNN announced that the Department of Justice had opened an investigation of the CIA for "obstruction of justice" for letting Hughes Electronics of Los Angeles, a subsidiary of General Motors Corp., know that it was the subject of a Senate investigation into possible illegal technology transfers to China (see "USA - Chinese Rocket Failure Opens 'Can of Worms'", INT, n. 76 15). Early this year, a federal grand jury was investigating whether Loral Space & Communications, of New York, and Hughes illegally gave China advanced technology that significantly improved Beijing's ballistic missile guidance systems, when, on 18 February, the investigation was complicated by President Bill Clinton quietly approving the launch of a Loral satellite by China and thus the export to China of technology similar to that being investigated. This decision by Pres. Clinton was opposed by certain Customs, Justice and FBI officials. (...) --------------------------------------------- Intelligence, N. 90, 14 December 1998, p. 12 GREAT BRITAIN WHO DARES PUBLISHES ... SAS HISTORY The British government's attempts to prevent members of the Special Air Service (SAS) from rushing into print as soon as they are discharged from the regiment have been seriously undermined by a recently-published set of books which a spokesman for the Ministry of Defence (MoD) has described as "bad for morale, generates suspicion, threatens personal security and effects the valuable relationship which the regiment has with other organisations with which they work". Such as the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), for example, who hired the SAS in the early 1980s to train Afghan mujahideen in the fine art of guerrilla warfare at secret "boot camps" in the north of England and the Scottish Highlands, according to Special Forces instructor, Ken Connor, a former member of 22 SAS, who left the regiment in 1986. In his book, "Ghost Force", Mr. Connor claims the intensive, three-week training program -- which involved battlefield communications, the use of high-quality explosives (including US-manufactured C3), heat-seeking Stinger missiles and mortars -- was transferred to Britain after Soviet forces destroyed training camps set up and armed by the CIA inside Afghanistan, close to the Pakistan border, in 1982. (...) --------------------------------------------- Intelligence, N. 90, 14 December 1998, p. 14 FRANCE STRANGE USES OF THE PRESS ON INTELLIGENCE Recent press reports have treated topics related to French intelligence rather strangely. With the recent release of former British MI5 officer, David Shayler, specialists were expecting something on French intelligence in the British press. On 21 November, the "Sunday Times" came out with "French Spies Gag Malt the Mole", comparing the French Renseignements Generaux (RGs) political intelligence police to a "democratic Gestapo", claiming the RG kept leading French figures under surveillance and forced comedian, "Coluche", to drop out of the presidential election finals of 1981 because his score was too high. None of that is new or surprising for anyone who reads French or knows France. However, the mention of a 180-page manuscript by journalist, Julien Caumer, entitled "RG - Les Dossiers Secrets", based on interviews with a senior RG official, has raised some eyebrows. According to the report, French publishers have been forbidden to print Caumer's manuscript. Perhaps the "Sunday Times" can help him. Specialists believe this is just the "opening shot" in a "get even for Shayler" campaign. We mentioned in our last issue that, thanks to Jacques Isnard of "Le Monde", DGSE foreign intelligence has proudly announced its 1999 budget with a 12.1 percent increase (INT, n. 89 15), noting that a lot will go into equipment in the 13 DGSE electronic eavesdropping centers. Isnard uncharacteristically noted that DGSE intelligence production is currently judged "insufficient" while that of DRM military intelligence, "with its 1,710 personnel and six general officers" is "more satisfying". According to Isnard, the 4,312-strong DGSE personnel has only one general officer and 2,797 civilians. But other reports see things differently. On 9 September, when Defense Minister, Alain Richard, presented the planned defense budget before a group of specialists, he stated that 86 civilian jobs would be created at the DGSE out of a total of 1988 jobs at the Ministry. With tighter and tighter defense budgets and "insufficient" production, the DGSE seems to be doing fairly well. (...) --------------------------------------------- Intelligence, N. 90, 14 December 1998, p. 15 GERMANY OLD AND NEW IN FOREIGN INTELLIGENCE (...) As of 1 October 1998, the BND has a new structure. Its six departments have been reduced to five and Abteilung V (Security), with its staff of 500, has been disbanded. The less sensitive "cover operations" of Abteilung V have been transferred to Abteilung IV (Administration and Legal Affairs) where budget and training are already located. The more sensitive security background checks and staff surveillance have become a sub-department, Unterabteilung, directly under the BND President. The new structure also has Abteilung I (Operations and HUMINT) divided into three sub-departments: Transregional Main Focuses such as proliferation, terrorism, migration and special forms of organized crime; Region Main Focus I and Regional Main Focus II. Abteilung II has three sub-departments: Decoding, Technical Reconnaissance I and II. Abteilung III (Evaluation) has sub-departments similar to department I and an additional Unterabteilung Gesamtlage (General Situation) sub-department. Abteilung VI (Technical Support) retains its function. Most specialists believe Abteilung VI will also be disbanded when BND staff continues to decrease from its 1990 level of 7,000 to its target 5,000 level in 2004. --------------------------------------------- Intelligence, N. 90, 14 December 1998, p. 20 ISRAEL ENEMIES WITHIN AND WITHOUT With Hezbollah waging a war of attrition against the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) in south Lebanon, the last thing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu needed was exactly what he got: a revised internal threat assessment in the wake of the Wye River Plantation conference which reached an interim agreement with the Palestinian Authority regarding a 13 percent Israeli military withdrawal from the West Bank in return for a Palestinian crackdown on Hamas. The Shin Bet analysis was given to the Prime Minister by the security service deputy head, Israel Hasson, and warned that religious extremists within the Jewish right-wing settler underground may try to bomb Muslim holy places and assassinate Jewish and Palestinian leaders. According to the confidential report, the Al Asqa Mosque in Jerusalem is in "grave danger" of an attack which could "ignite the Muslim world" and lead to a holy war against Israel, "by millions of Muslims worldwide". Prime Minister Netanyahu was told by Hasson that the threats are comparable to those made prior to the terror campaign against Palestinian West Bank mayors in 1980, in retaliation for the deaths of six Jewish settlers by a four-man Fatah unit outside Beit Hadassah settlement, in Hebron. (...) --------------------------------------------- Intelligence, N. 90, 14 December 1998, p. 22 ASIA - Open Source Intelligence. CHINA On the day when most countries were celebrating the 50th anniversary of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, software engineer Lin Hai and physicist and dissident Wang Youcai sat in jail for using the Internet to support democracy in China. Lin Hai was arrested on 25 March 1998 for providing 30,000 Chinese email addresses to VIP Reference, which publishes a pro-democracy newsletter described by Chinese prosecutors as a "hostile foreign publication." Wang Youcai, a leader of the 1989 pro-democracy demonstrations, is scheduled to go to trial on December 17 in the Hangzhou Intermediate Court on the charge of "inciting to overthrow state power." Among his crimes is sending e-mail messages to dissidents in the US. Wang was arrested in July for trying to organize an opposition party. (4 reports) - On 28 November, the "Los Angeles Times" reported that China may be building a laser powerful enough to damage surveillance and communications satellites. However, Pentagon officials said they do not have conclusive proof of this effort. (3 reports) PHILIPPINES On 2 December, the Saudi Arabia-based Islamic Development Bank (IDB) opened the first International Islamic Business Conference in Mindanao in an effort to help the government strengthen the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) as a legitimate and pro-government Moslem organization. If the government doesn't succeed, it may find itself fighting two major Moslem rebel armies instead of only the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF). NEW ZEALAND A bungled break-in by Security Intelligence Service (SIS) officers at the home of Christchurch activist, Aziz Choudry, was illegal, the Court of Appeal has ruled. In a recent decision, appeal court president, Sir Ivor Richardson, said the interception warrant under which the SIS conducted its break-in did not empower the SIS to enter private property without the consent of the owner. ---------------------------------------------