Via NY Transfer News Collective * All the News that Doesn't Fit INTELLIGENCE N. 30 New Series, 5 February 1996 Publishing since 1980 Editor Olivier Schmidt (intelligence-adi@wanadoo.fr; tel/fax 33 1 40 51 85 19; ADI, 16 rue des Ecoles, 75005 Paris, France) ISSN 1245-2122 Copyright ADI 1996, reproduction in any form forbidden without explicit authorization from the ADI. NORTHERN IRELAND: UNIONIST AND TORY SPLIT PREDICTED The Northern Ireland Ulster Unionist Party (UUP), under the pragmatic leadership of David Trimble, MP, will withdraw its support at Westminster for the Conservative government following the local elections in May, in which the Tories are expected to suffer heavy losses. This is predicted in a recent confidential briefing paper complied by Johnathan Caine, a former political aide to the present Northern Ireland Secretary of State, Sir Patrick Mayhew, who resigned last November to become a parliamentary lobbyist with the UK Communications Group. Indeed, the UUP's relationship with the Labour Party under Tony Blair has improved since the party's Northern Ireland spokesman, Kevin McNamara (whom the Unionists regard as pro-nationalist) was replaced by the "more cooperative" Dr. Mo Mowlan. The relationship with the Conservatives, according to Mr. Caine, has been strained since the late 1994 publication of the joint London/Dublin "framework document" for a possible settlement of the Northern Ireland conflict. However, the UUP is "drawing some comfort" from its assumption that the "document is dead" and that Prime Minister John Major will stand firm on the decommissioning of IRA weapons as a precondition. According to Mr. Caine, "while the second of these is probable, the first represents wishful thinking." COMMENT - Mr. Crane's analysis of the UUP's electoral strategy remains valid despite Mr. Major adopting a "Unionist agenda" following the British government's rejection of the Mitchell Report on arms decommissioning. The Labour Party supports the idea of an election to what is now being described as a "forum" by Sir Patrick Mayhew, following a 30 January meeting with Sinn Fein president Gerry Adams (at Mr. Mayhew's request) who reemphasized that Sinn Fein is "utterly opposed" to elections before all-party talks (as the Mitchell Report recommended) and urged the British government to stick to the agenda of talks beginning by the end of this month, as agreed among Dublin, London and (privately) Washington, last November. The British government, supported unthinkingly by Labour, has managed to alienate all shades of nationalist opinion in Dublin and Washington which regard Westminster's attitude toward former Senator Mitchell and his colleagues as "insulting". Nationalists in Northern Ireland are now being asked to believe that elections will not mean a return to a Stormont-type assembly dominated by Unionists which led to discrimination, then the Civil Rights Movement, the deployment of British troops, the Provisional IRA, Loyalist death squads and 25-years of political violence. * IRELAND - INLA Members on the Run. Two alleged members of the Irish National Liberation Army (INLA), Dessie McCleary and Hugh Torney, both from Northern Ireland, are on the run after failing to appear before the Special Criminal Court in Dublin to answer charges relating to the discovery of arms, Operation Tara, in the Irish Republic last April (INT, 12/41). The men had been granted bail by the Dublin High Court last July, according to Irish police sources, on condition that they report daily to Garda at Kingscourt, County Cavan, after a Belfast solicitor convinced the court that the accused had actually influenced the INLA to "suspend military operations" in July 1994, a month before the IRA's "cessation of hostilities" announcement. A third suspect, Sean Braniff, had a "legitimate" reason for not appearing in Dublin. He remains in custody in Belfast's Crumlin Road jail, charged with stealing two shotguns and a rifle from a house in Annacloy, County Down. * NORTHERN IRELAND - Gino Gallagher. A leading member of the Irish Republican Socialist Party (IRSP), the political wing of the Irish National Liberation Army (INLA) -- the only armed group not to have declared a ceasefire -- Gino Gallagher was shot dead inside the Social Security office in the Lower Falls area of West Belfast on 30 January. According to RUC Detective Chief Superintendent Dereck Martindale, a single gunman attacked Gallagher from behind, shooting him, at point blank range, in the head and body before "walking calmly" from the building and "disappearing" on the Falls Road. In recent weeks, Gallagher had been developing a public profile as a spokesman for the IRSP. On 16 January, he attended a news conference in Belfast where the party outlined its position concerning the peace process. However, intelligence sources regarded Gallagher as the "leading paramilitary" (chief of staff) of INLA and he had admitted he was "an officer" in their volatile organization. In 1993, Gallagher escaped injury when Loyalist gunmen from the Ulster Freedom Fighters attacked his home. In this current incident, according to RUC Chief Officer for Belfast, Bill Stewart, there are "strong indications" that the assassination is part of an internal feud, an allegation denied by Kevin McQuillan, spokesman for the IRSP. * IRELAND/U.S.A. - George Dempsey. After several years of hesitation and postponements, former U.S. Department of State employee, George Dempsey, will be in court in Dublin this week seeking libel damages from the political satire weekly, "The Phoenix" (INT, N. 27/13). Dempsey, who wants to settle in Ireland, asserts the weekly damaged his reputation by calling him a CIA agent. The journal is defending itself by trying to show that, first, there's nothing libelous about being a CIA agent -- all "honorable men" after the expression of former CIA director William Colby -- and, second, there are strong indications that Dempsey was involved in clandestine political activity during his official service as First Secretary (Political) at the U.S. embassy in Dublin from 1988 to July 1992. * For subscription info, write to: intelligence-adi@wanadoo.fr or point your browser to Intelligence online: http://www.blythe.org/Intelligence ================================================================= NY Transfer News Collective * A Service of Blythe Systems Since 1985 - Information for the Rest of Us 339 Lafayette St., New York, NY 10012 http://www.blythe.org =================================================================