Stratfor: Eritrea-Ethiopia War Via NY Transfer News * All the News That Doesn't Fit Stratfor.com's Global Intelligence Update - 18 May 2000 War In Eritrea: What the Offensive Is Really About Summary Facing the possibility of worsening famine and drought, Ethiopia has launched a new offensive to end its two-year old war with Eritrea. The war is frequently portrayed as a senseless nationalist conflict over a rocky, barren border. But it appears that this offensive has a more shrewd and logical aim. Advancing Ethiopian units are apparently trying to divert their opponents, forcing them to defend their capital - and allowing the landlocked Ethiopians the opportunity to seize a vital port on the Red Sea. Analysis Addis Ababa's five-day offensive intensified on May 17, as Ethiopian units reportedly moved closer toward the strategic western town of Barentu, one of the Eritrean army's central supply centers and an important field headquarters. On Friday May 12, a renewed Ethiopian offensive broke through Eritrean lines at the disputed Mereb River border along the war's central front. Ethiopia is now moving to take towns along three of the country's main roads in an apparent attempt to gain control of Eritrea's strategic supply routes. At first glance, this offensive could threaten the Eritrean capital, Asmara, However, it appears unlikely that advancing units are willing to capture Asmara. Instead, it seems that landlocked Ethiopia is attempting to divert the defenders in the hope of creating a breach in the southeastern front, at the town of Bure. By doing so, the Ethiopians would force defenders to focus on saving their capital. If the advancing forces succeed in this gambit, they could pour through the opening and seize the port at Assab - regaining access to the Red Sea and its trading routes. Facing both drought and famine, Ethiopia has strong incentive to capture the port in advance of any peace agreement. When Eritrea declared independence from Ethiopia in 1993, it took the entire coastline, including both Red Sea ports - leaving Ethiopia landlocked. Although Ethiopia's government supported independence, conflicts soon arose between the two. They initially clashed over Ethiopia's access to Eritrea's two ports and inequitable trade. Though smaller, Eritrea held the upper hand over its larger neighbor. The government in Asmara kept the country's market effectively closed to Ethiopian goods, while Eritrean goods could freely enter neighboring Ethiopia. Border disputes erupted into war. Small unit skirmishes led to artillery duels, trench warfare and air strikes. By 1999, Ethiopia had succeeded in destroying both Eritrean Red Sea ports, at Assab and Massawa, disrupting re-supply. The conflict is now commonly viewed as a senseless nationalist struggle, when in fact the fighting is less about the rocky, barren border region and more about maritime access and trade. The reason that international efforts to mediate the dispute have failed is because they consistently focus on the less important issue of border disputes. Amazingly, the balance of forces between these antagonists is closely matched. Ethiopia's population of 58 million dwarfs Eritrea's 4 million people. But the Ethiopian Army reportedly numbers about 350,000 - compared to Eritrea's 200,000 to 250,000 troops, according to Jane's Intelligence Review. Forces engaged at the front are even more closely matched. Ethiopia fields 75,000 troops at the Mereb River, the central front, and Eritrea has deployed about 60,000 men and women, officials of the U.S. Central Command recently told Jane's Intelligence Review. Ethiopia does enjoy the advantage in the air - with 6 MiG-21s, 9 MiG-24s and 10 MiG-23s - while the Eritreans have just three combat effective MiG-29s. Three other Eritrean MiGs are apparently not operational. But in spite of their advantages, the Ethiopians have been unable to score a decisive win in the two-year-old war. Difficult terrain, trench warfare and Eritrea's stubbornly defensive strategy have all conspired against the Ethiopians. The recent visit by a U.N. delegation led by U.S. Ambassador Richard Holbrooke failed to reach a resolution, when the government in Eritrea refused to accept the terms of a proposed peace deal. Despite the two countries economic, cultural, linguistic and familial ties, neither side has been willing to compromise. A redrawing of the lines on the ground, however, may force Eritrea to reconsider. Already Eritrea has had to pull forces from other areas in order to combat the Ethiopian military's advance, according to reports from U.N. officials. In advance of the country's worsening humanitarian crisis, Ethiopia has a short window of opportunity to try to seize the port at Assab and its trade - either by force or at the negotiating table. (c) 2000 WNI, Inc. 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