Preparing for life after Mandela Via NY Transfer News Collective * All the News that Doesn't Fit source - twnet@po.jaring.my April 1999 PREPARING FOR LIFE AFTER MANDELA As the reign of President Nelson Mandela slowly draws to a close, the writer looks at some of the problems his successor will face. By Gumisai Mutume Thabo Mbeki, the current deputy president of South Africa, has said he will not make any major changes when he takes over, but South Africa without Mandela will definitely be a different place. Mandela steps down as head of state after the next general elections due this year. Born on 8 June 1942, Thabo Mvuyelwa Mbeki has spent the better part of this year preparing for his eventual take-over from Mandela, if the ruling African National Congress (ANC) wins the polls. Mandela has quietly slipped out of major presidential functions, leaving the way for Mbeki to get plenty of practice. Analysts say while there may not be much change in substance there is certainly going to be one in style when Mbeki takes over. 'South Africa has had five years to consolidate the new government and I don't think there are going to be any major policy shifts,' says Alfred Stadler, a political scientist at the University of the Witwatersrand. However, Stadler points out that Mbeki is one of the new breed of politicians, and in political circles, he is seen as a doer. 'Mandela belongs to the generation of leaders who rose in the politics of rallies, demagoguery and fine speeches and that generation is out,' Stadler said. 'Mbeki is a confident, well-trained British university graduate, although he is not as charismatic as Mandela.' But the road ahead for Mbeki as South Africa's second president after the country attained majority rule in 1994, is not a smooth one. For starters, Mbeki may have to deal with a more militant labour movement. A rift between the labour movement and government, which widened in 1998, is set to deepen. The 1.8-million-strong Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU), which is an alliance partner of the ANC, has major differences with its ally over macro-economic policies. These speculations have fuelled speculation that COSATU may run for elections on its own ticket. Mbeki has even given COSATU and the South African Communist Party a dressing down, warning that they either toe the line or leave the alliance. The labour movement in South Africa is a formidable foe. While trade union membership is on the decline internationally, in South Africa it rose by 127% over the last 10 years. On the other hand, jobs are hard to come by. According to research by the South African Institute of Race Relations (SAIRR), the rate of unemployment is growing by 8% per annum and could reach 43% by 2006. 'While the political stability achieved in 1994 has largely been preserved, it faces threats, many of them covert,' warns the Centre for Policy Studies (CPS) in its quarterly review of political and economic trends. This year saw the theft of arms from a military base in Bloemfontein, which the court heard was carried out by a right-wing movement, Die Volk, as part of a plan to take over the government. The Western Cape, home to a growing trend in armed violence in South Africa, has experienced more than 155 bomb attacks since 1996. But perhaps the biggest challenge facing Mbeki's government will be the Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) pandemic. South Africa has one of the fastest growing epidemics in the world with 1,500 people infected daily. More than three million people are currently infected with the virus in South Africa. During his leadership, Mbeki will also have to contend with keeping the ANC's support base strong. The party won 62% of the polls in 1994 and is garnering for a two-thirds majority this time around. Two surveys carried out during the course of the year, one by Markinor and the other by Mark Data, revealed different pictures of the ANC's support, which is said to be around 50 or 60% of the adult population. Political analysts are also asking if Mbeki will be able to hold the centre within a party made up of such disparate entities - communists, trade unionists, liberal intellectuals and capitalists. - Third World Network Features -ends- About the writer: Gumisai Mutume is a South African journalist, based in Johannesburg. The above article first appeared in African Agenda (Vol. 2 No. 1, 1999). When reproducing this feature, please credit Third World Network Features and (if applicable) the cooperating magazine or agency involved in the article, and give the byline. Please send us cuttings. Third World Network is also accessible on the World Wide Web. 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