China/India/Pakistan (Stratfor's Update) Via NY Transfer News Collective * All the News that Doesn't Fit ______________________________________ Visit the New Asia Intelligence Center http://www.stratfor.com/asia/ ______________________________________ STRATFOR's Global Intelligence Update June 16, 1999 China Tilts Toward India on Kargil Conflict Summary: Both Pakistani Foreign Minister Sartaj Aziz and Indian Foreign Minister Jaswant Singh have completed recent trips to Beijing, to state their respective cases regarding the ongoing fighting in the Kargil area of Kashmir. While China continues to assert its neutrality on the issue and to urge the warring parties to reach a diplomatic resolution of the conflict, Chinese comments on other issues suggests India has come out ahead with its Beijing foray. Analysis: Pakistani Foreign Minister Sartaj Aziz made a hurried visit to China on June 11, only a day before he entered what were ultimately fruitless talks with his Indian counterpart in New Delhi. Aziz called his talks in Beijing very fruitful and productive." However, he apparently was able to extract nothing more from Chinese Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan and National People's Congress Chairman Li Peng than Beijing's stated desire that the situation be rapidly deescalated and that Pakistan and India resolve the crisis through bilateral negotiation. Aziz was unable to budge China from its steadfast neutrality on the issue, nor to convince China to put its neutrality to work in a mediating role. In short, Pakistan's longtime ally told Islamabad to solve the crisis itself, quickly and peacefully. Pakistan has received similar cold shoulders from the U.S., Britain, France, and Russia, which have either implied or stated outright that they believe India's assertion that Pakistan initiated the current hostilities. India seems to have fared a little better with Foreign Minister Jaswant Singh's Beijing trip. Singh met with Tang on June 14, and with Chinese Prime Minister Zhu Rongji on Tuesday, in the highest level talks between Indian and Chinese officials since Indian nuclear tests more than a year ago and the first visit of an Indian foreign minister to China in eight years. While Singh, too, received China's declaration of neutrality on the Kargil crisis and was urged to resolve the crisis quickly and peacefully through bilateral negotiations with Pakistan, there was a decidedly different tone to China's comments. To begin with, Singh insisted that he did not travel to China to discuss India- Pakistan relations, but to hold a comprehensive dialogue with Chinese officials on many issues of common concern. He also went with a goal of resurrecting India-China relations that had been derailed by comments out of New Delhi during and after India's nuclear tests. Singh launched his China visit by declaring that India did not consider China to be a threat -- a refutation of the justification India had given for its nuclear tests which China had demanded before relations between the two countries could get back on track. China accepted the apology, and proposed establishing a "security dialogue mechanism" with India for addressing regional and global concerns. Tang said, "Sino-Indian relations have entered a phase of improvement and this visit [of Singh] is an important step of the process. A precondition of the development of Sino-Indian relations is ensuring the two sides do not see each other as a threat." According to Indian sources, Tang also briefed Singh on his talks with Aziz. China has long supported Pakistan as a counterbalance to Indian power in the region. However, while geopolitical constants will guarantee Chinese and Indian competition in the long term, short and mid term concerns may be causing China to temper its support for Islamabad. In the short term, China is concerned with the growing Islamic fundamentalism in Pakistan, and Islamabad's willingness to export it to neighboring states. Pakistan supports the Afghan Taleban militia, as well as fundamentalist mujahedeen in Kashmir. The Taleban, in turn, have reportedly not only supported the Kashmiri fighters, but have rendered assistance to Moslem Uighur separatists in China's western Xinjiang region. Uighur separatism has been a growing concern for Beijing, not only due to increasing violence in Xinjiang, but also due to reported Uighur attacks throughout China. The Moslem quarter in Beijing was recently razed in the interests, officially, of urban renewal. In his talks with Aziz, Li Peng made a point of stressing China's belief that foreign interests should stay out of other nations' domestic ethnic conflicts. Said Li, "Ethnic issues have always been complicated and sensitive. As these issues are the internal affairs of a country, no external forces should interfere with them. Each country should formulate correct ethnic policies in accordance with its own national conditions and properly deal with its own ethnic issues, so as to maintain ethnic unity, social stability, and economic development." While Li used Kosovo as an example, China's refusal to back Pakistan's decision to send mercenaries and, possibly, Pakistani Army troops to Kashmir may therefore be a signal that Pakistan has taken China's support a bit too much for granted in its behavior vis a vis Xinjiang. In the mid term, Moscow has been urging China and India to join Russia in a three part alliance aimed at counterbalancing U.S. global hegemony. While Russia maintains strong bilateral ties with India and with China, traditional animosity has made it impossible to complete the triangle. However, Indian officials have recently been more openly receptive to Russia's proposals, paving the way for a rapprochement with China. Following the destruction of its embassy in Belgrade, China has been more eager to move forward on Russian proposals as well. Finally, NATO political and military behavior in Kosovo has succeeded in discrediting it and the U.S. as honest brokers in international affairs. Russia has stepped into the role of honest broker in Kosovo, and China has been presented the same opportunity in Asia. Already China is hosting talks between North and South Korea, and may consider asserting its influence in the Kashmir conflict as well. China may have to be more active than its current subtle diplomacy if it is to salvage a peace in Kashmir. India believes that if it can just keep the conflict from escalating, Pakistan will suffer more than India politically, economically, and militarily. Pakistan, in turn, has seized a powerful lever with the Kargil heights, and is not eager to let it go without first achieving measurable gains. The problem is, both stalemate and escalation plays into the hands of Pakistani radicals -- exactly the group China hopes to undermine. As Islamabad and New Delhi show no signs of reaching a settlement on their own, we are likely to see Beijing play a greater role in efforts to resolve the crisis. ___________________________________________________ To receive free daily Global Intelligence Updates, sign up on the web at: http://www.stratfor.com/services/giu/subscribe.asp or send your name, organization, position, mailing address, phone number, and e-mail address to alert@stratfor.com STRATFOR, Inc. 504 Lavaca, Suite 1100 Austin, TX 78701 Phone: 512-583-5000 Fax: 512-583-5025 Internet: http://www.stratfor.com/ Email: info@stratfor.com ================================================================= NY Transfer News Collective * A Service of Blythe Systems Since 1985 - Information for the Rest of Us 339 Lafayette St., New York, NY 10012 http://www.blythe.org e-mail: nyt@blythe.org ================================================================= nytas-06.19.99-04:37:44-31282