China at the Boiling Point Via NY Transfer News Collective * All the News that Doesn't Fit Boston Globe 5/11/99 OpEd China at the boiling point By Merle and Marshall Goldman, 05/11/99 The NATO attack on the Chinese embassy in Belgrade, killing three Chinese journalists, has unleashed an explosion of Chinese grievances that has been building up between the United States and China over the past six months. The anti-American nationalist demonstrations in front of the American embassy in Beijing and American consulates over the past few days stand in sharp contrast to the demonstrations just 10 years ago in Tiananmen Square that were pro-democratic. With their replica of the Statue of Liberty, China's students then looked to the United States as the model that they wanted their own government to follow. Despite the cooling of relations in the aftermath of the military crackdown on the students on June 4, 1989, relations gradually improved in the mid-1990s and in 1997-98 the presidents of both countries exchanged state visits. It appeared as if the United States and China were reconciling their differences. But in late 1998, China arrested the leaders of the effort to set up an opposition political party, leading the US to introduce a resolution at the UN Commission on Human Rights in April condemning China's human-rights abuses. In addition, information became available in 1999 about China's alleged theft of American military technology, and the US trade deficit with China is nearing $60 billion. Even before the bombing of its embassy, NATO's bombing in the former Yugoslavia had greatly hurt relations between the two countries. The Chinese regard the bombing as a return to Western gunboat diplomacy to which China was subjected in the 19th century. More important, China has opposed NATO's bombing in the former Yugoslavia from the beginning because its leaders fear that NATO could use a similar approach against China for ''ethnic cleansing'' in Tibet or for trying to ''reunite'' with Taiwan through military means. Until now, however, China's opposition has been rhetorical. The bombing of its embassy has given China an opportunity, through orchestrated protests, to express opposition in a more dramatic and visual way. These demonstrations have succeeded in getting both President Clinton and Secretary of State Albright to make abject apologies to the Chinese people. But it is unlikely that such apologies will lessen the tensions. China's leaders may continue their anti-American stance for domestic reasons. With the 10th anniversary of June 4 imminent, they may promote this anti-Americanism in order to head off demonstrations on that day in memory of those who had demonstrated for democracy in 1989. In addition, hostility toward the US diverts the population's attention from China's growing domestic troubles - bankrupt state industries and banks, declining economic growth, workers protests against layoffs and delayed wages, and peasant riots against corrupt local officials and added taxes. These troubles can be blamed on China's foreign enemies rather than on China's leaders or political system. Another factor that has worsened relations was the failure of Zhu Rongji in his trip to the United States in March to nail down China's entrance into the World Trade Organization. At that time he made several concessions to open up China's markets to American goods and services, but President Clinton did not feel he could get Congress to approve, primarily by dispensing with the yearly review of China's most-favored-nation treatment that would be needed in order for China to enter WTO. Even though Clinton reopened discussions on this issue just before Zhu returned home, so far the negotiations have been unable to make a breakthrough. Furthermore, on his return, Zhu encountered opposition to the concessions he had made, especially from the managers of state industries most affected by the international competition and from more conservative officials, who oppose any concessions to the US. The problem with demonstrations and inflamed nationalist rhetoric, no matter how controlled, is that they can get out of hand. This has happened before in Chinese history. The Boxer Rebellion, which began as an attack on the Qing dynasty, was turned by the dynasty into an attack on the Western powers, who were blamed for all of China's problems. The Boxers' attacks on the foreign legations in Beijing in 1900 became so violent and chaotic that they led to a brief war between China and the powers. It is unlikely that such an event will happen this time because, unlike the Empress Dowager who was leading the dynasty at the time, China's present leaders, Jiang Zemin and Zhu Rongji, realize that it needs good relations with the West in order to mdernize its economy, which is still China's major goal. But there is always the chance that such demonstrations and rhetoric will discourage tourism, trade, investment, and exchanges between China and the West, which will hurt China much more than the West. One way to defuse the growing tensions is through some resolution of the Kosovo crisis. Given the fact that the former Soviet Union was once both the enemy of the United States and China, who would have thought that Russia might appear as a mediator in this worsening crisis. Yet, Russia's former prime minister, Victor Chernomyrdrin, has gone to Beijing to calm things down and try to persuade China to accept a resolution to the Kosovo crisis that Russia has worked out with the Western powers. It is in the interest of all three countries as well as the people of Kosovo that he succeed. Merle Goldman is a professor of Chinese history at Boston University and the co-author with John K. Fairbank of ''China: A New History''; Marshall Goldman is deputy director of the Davis Center of Russian Studies at Harvard University. This story ran on page A19 of the Boston Globe on 05/11/99. 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