Kosovo Sectors Limit US, Russian Influence


Via NY Transfer News Collective * All the News that Doesn't Fit

Stratfor Commentary
http://www.stratfor/com

1921 GMT, 990619

Kosovo Sectors Limit U.S. and Russian Influence

While, at least as far as the Russians are concerned, there are no "zones of
control in Kosovo, the province is to be divided into five "sectors," which
will be controlled and patrolled by NATO members Germany, France, Italy, the
United States and the United Kingdom. Under the deal struck between Russia
and NATO, 3,000 to 7,000 Russian troops will patrol alongside NATO forces in
the German, French, and U.S. sectors. The politics behind teaming Russians
with these particular countries is clear. More than others in NATO, France
and Germany have attempted to cooperate with Russia throughout the Kosovo
conflict, and are attempting to establish the foundation for further
post-conflict cooperation. The U.S. has a symbolic obligation to compromise.

However, the geographic distribution of NATO members and Russian forces
among the sectors has interesting

implications for NATO, Russia, Yugoslavia, the KLA, and the future of
Kosovo.

Sector 1: Germany controls the strategically important southern corner,
including Prizren, with 8,000 troops. The German sector includes most of the
Macedonian border with Kosovo and part of the Albanian border with the
Province. It is here, if anywhere, that Russia will have an impact on

developments in Kosovo.

Sector 2: France's 7,000 troops will patrol a small piece of territory on
the western edge of the northern corner of Kosovo. Frances sector includes
a small portion of the border with Montenegro, but mostly covers a piece of
Kosovos border with Serbia proper. France has no significant cities in its
zone, and will have little impact on what goes on in the heart of the
province. Russian troops patrolling this zone are likewise in exile.

Sector 3: Italy has one of the most strategic sectors, with 5,000 troops 
the smallest of the major contingents  covering most of the Albanian and
Montenegrin borders with Kosovo. Italy also controls Pec and Djakovica. It
will be through Italy's zone that the bulk of the KLA not already in Kosovo
will attempt to infiltrate the province. The others will pass through the
German zone.

Sector 4: The U.S. will control the eastern corner of Kosovo, including
Gnjilane, with 7,000 troops. This area includes a stretch of Kosovos border
with the rest of Serbia, and is strategic in that it covers the road from
Nis to Pristina. As far as having an impact on events in Kosovo, however, it
is the sticks. U.S. and Russian troops in Sector 4 are effectively out of
the picture in Kosovo.

Sector 5: the UK, with 13,000 troops, controls a huge swath of the heart of
Kosovo, including Pristina and Podujevo and a long strip of the
Kosovo-Serbia border between the French and U.S. sectors. Pristinas Slatina
airport is open to all of KFOR under the NATO-Russia agreement, but Russia
may continue to have a presence at the airport.

In short, Russia is absent in what are perhaps the two most

significant sectors  those of Italy and the UK. The presence in the German
sector and at the airport is significant, but the troops deployed with
French and U.S. forces are basically exiles. The U.S. and Russia, so key to
Kosovo developments to date, are effectively marginalized in the province.
Italy and the UK have been handed the greatest control over

developments on the ground in Kosovo. Italy has a vested interest in
limiting the influence of Tirana and the KLA in Kosovo, and its troops are
geographically placed to do so, but Italy may not have committed the forces
necessary to take on the KLA. So the UK is the key player, and its interests
are far less clear.
 
=================================================================
  NY Transfer News Collective   *   A Service of Blythe Systems 
           Since 1985 - Information for the Rest of Us          
              339 Lafayette St., New York, NY 10012             
  http://www.blythe.org                  e-mail: nyt@blythe.org 
=================================================================
 
nyteeu-06.20.99-11:51:58-28228