Today Kosovo, Tomorrow the Baltics/Stratfor


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Stratfor Commentary - June 14, 1999
http://www.stratfor.com


Today Kosovo, Tomorrow the Baltics

The confrontation that has emerged between Russia and NATO in Kosovo is
redefining the relationship between the two, and will have inevitable
repercussions for countries caught between them. Among the first on the
front lines are the Baltic states - Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania - who are
eager to lock down a more solid and explicit relationship with NATO. NATO
Undersecretary General Klaus-Peter Klaiber arrived in the Latvian capital
Riga on Monday, on a two day visit to discuss the future of NATO-Baltic
relations. Klaiber is scheduled to meet with the Latvian prime minister and
defense minister, foreign ministry officials, and parliamentary commissions
on defense and foreign affairs. He will also reportedly meet with the German
and U.S. ambassadors, and will visit the joint "Baltbat" peacekeeping
battalion. Finally, Klaiber will meet with Baltic and Nordic defense
ministers, who are meeting in Riga to discuss regional and Euro-Atlantic
security. Latvian Foreign Minister Valdis Birkavs said that Klaiber's visit
would help clarify the future of NATO enlargement and the Baltic states'
prospects for joining the organization.

Concurrent with Klaiber's Latvia visit, foreign ministers of the Council of
the Baltic Sea States (CBSS) - a group founded by Germany and Denmark in
1992 - are meeting in Palanga, Lithuania. The CBSS is comprised of Denmark,
Estonia, Finland, Germany, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Poland,
Russia, Sweden, and the European Commission, with the U.S., Britain, France,
and Ukraine participating as associate members. The group is expected to
focus on broad regional cooperation, but particularly on boosting links
between Russia and the European Union.

While the NATO-Russian crisis in Kosovo has increased the importance of the
meetings in Latvia and Lithuania, it temporarily undermined Russia's role in
the meetings. Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov was forced by Friday's
move of Russian forces into Kosovo to cancel plans to visit Riga and
Kaliningrad and to attend the CBSS meeting in Palanga. Ivanov was to have
met with senior Kaliningrad officials in the Russian enclave on June 12,
travelling to Riga on the same day, where he was to have met with the
Latvian president, prime minister, and foreign minister on June 12 and 13.
Ivanov's was to have been the first Russian ministerial level visit to
Latvia since the Baltic country achieved independence in 1991. On June 14
and 15, Ivanov was to have met with the Lithuanian president, prime
minister, and foreign minister, and to have attended the CBSS meeting.
Instead, First Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Avdeyev will represent
Russia at the CBSS meeting.

The visit by Klaiber and the cancelled visit by Ivanov to the Baltics,
significant at any time, are doubly so in light of the Russian-NATO standoff
in Kosovo. NATO and Russia are now, once again, clearly in strategic
competition, and the Baltics are on the front lines. The Baltics adamantly
wish to be in the European Union and NATO, and in addition to the meeting in
Riga, Latvian and Estonian ships this weekend participated in

NATO-sponsored "Baltops 99" exercises in the Baltic, while Lithuania last
week nominated U.S. Colonel Jonas Kronkaitis as commander in chief of the
country's armed forces. While Ivanov was forced, by the Kosovo crisis, to
cancel his trip to the Baltics, we fully expect him to reschedule quickly as
Russia begins asserting tremendous pressure to keep the Baltics out of NATO
and NATO out of the Baltics. But though Russia and the Baltics are sure of
their positions, it remains to be seen where NATO stands. The EU will
certainly attempt to moderate any Baltic tension through the CBSS, but it is
not likely to sufficiently counter the impact of the Riga meeting. There is
a race on for the Baltics. The starting gun was fired in Kosovo. NATO has a
head start, but it remains to be seen whether it plans to run in Riga, or
whether its European members would prefer to negotiate a postponement of the
race in Palanga.
 
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