NotiSur 12/07/01: Brazil, Venezuela, Paraguay Via NY Transfer News * All the News That Doesn't Fit [Reminder: This is a private reading copy for your personal use only. It may not be redistributed under the terms of our subscription with LADB. Thanks -- NY Transfer] ------------------------------------------------------------ L A T I N A M E R I C A D A T A B A S E NotiSur - South American Political & Economic Affairs ISSN 1060-4189 Volume 11, Number 44 December 7, 2001 ------------------------------------------------------------ Copyright 2001, Latin America Data Base (LADB), Latin American Institute, University of New Mexico Director: Rebecca Reynolds Bannister Editor: Patricia Hynds Staff writers: Carlos Navarro, Robert Sandels LADB ARCHIVES: Back issues are referenced to provide historical background relevant to the articles in this newsletter. These can be accessed with a subscription to the LADB searchable on-line archives at http://ladb.unm.edu/ by clicking on Search Archive. 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In This Issue: BRAZIL: WITH PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS LESS THAN A YEAR AWAY, CANDIDATES & PARTIES SCRAMBLE FOR POSITION * Sarney's rise coincides with problems in governing coalition * Growing divisions within Brazil's largest party * PT will hold party elections * Candidates advocate stronger state involvement in economy * Persistence of northeastern oligarchs and "patrimonial state" VENEZUELA: UNION CANDIDATE BACKED BY HUGO CHAVEZ LOSES ELECTION * Labor elections bring Chavez a notable defeat * Chavez decrees set off protests * Business owners call strike PARAGUAY: FUGITIVE GENERAL LINO OVIEDO MAY RETURN * Oviedo's stormy history * Return would end lengthy process in Brazil * Oviedo says he will return to Paraguay ____________________________________________________________ ********************* BRAZIL ********************* BRAZIL: WITH PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS LESS THAN A YEAR AWAY, CANDIDATES & PARTIES SCRAMBLE FOR POSITION By Matthew Flynn [The author writes for the International Weekly Edition of the Gazeta Mercantil, a Sao Paulo-based financial newspaper.] With Brazil's October 2002 presidential elections less than a year away, presidential candidates, political parties, and power brokers are jockeying for position. While President Fernando Henrique Cardoso's Partido Social Democrata Brasileiro (PSDB) would like to continue its hold on the presidency, it must contend with the spectacular rise of Roseana Sarney, daughter of ex-president Jose Sarney (1985-1990) and presidential hopeful of the Partido do Frente Liberal (PFL), which is part of the governing coalition. Roseana Sarney's jump in the polls has forced Cardoso to admit that the governing coalition's candidate might not come from the PSDB. "My candidate is whoever has the best chance to unite forces to gain the election through alliances with other parties," he said. "If Brazil wants a woman's touch, it's a good thing." In just over two months, Sarney leapt from obscurity to challenge poll leader Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, the eternal presidential hopeful of the Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT), who has fallen short in three previous runoff elections. Nonetheless, Lula and other opposition candidates remain confident that they have a strong chance of taking the reins of power because people's confidence in the governing coalition has dropped as a result of energy rationing and sluggish economic growth. Sarney's rise coincides with problems in governing coalition Even PFL leaders were surprised by the dramatic rise of Roseana Sarney, governor of the northern state of Maranhao. Without a strong party member to take the place of Vice President Marco Marciel of the PFL, party strategists decided to dedicate the majority of the party's free airtime to her in a move that bordered on infringing on federal campaign regulations. But the strategy worked, and the party is in a stronger position to negotiate with other alliance partners. In a voter-preference poll by Ibope in November, Sarney was the choice of 17% of respondents, behind Lula who had 30% and eight points ahead of Ciro Gomes from the Partido Popular Socialista (PPS)--a significant jump from the single digits she received just two months before. "Among the candidates, I would vote for Roseana because her presentation on TV is good, but then again it is [TV network] Globo that ends up choosing the candidate," said Gisele Campos, a student in Ouro Preto, Minas Gerais state. In a poll by Instituto Vox Populi, when the name of Health Minister Jose Serra was not included in the poll, voter preference put Sarney in a technical tie with Lula (26% vs. 28%, respectively). Sarney's rise in the polls is having a strong effect on how alliances are being formed within the governing coalition--made up of the PSDB, PFL, Partido do Movimento Democratico Brasileiro (PMDB), and several smaller parties, plus different factions within those parties. A few months ago, most attention concerning the coalition's candidate focused on the rivalry between two PSDB hopefuls, Serra and Ceara Gov. Tasso Jereissati. The rivalry, which also involves other PSDB names like Aecio Neves, speaker of the lower house, and Paulo Renato, minister of education, continues, but some realignments can already be observed, especially since neither Serra, said to be Cardoso's favorite, nor Tasso has made significant progress in the polls. With the exit of PFL strongman Antonio Carlos Magalhaes from the Senate's presidency (see NotiSur, 2001-09-28) and his failure to handpick a successor, the PSDB began to move closer to the PMDB, which now holds the seat. The growing alliance benefitted Serra, who has more allies in the party than Tasso, who has cross-party support from the PFL camp. Now Tasso and Sarney have been meeting to discuss campaign strategies, and the former president is pushing the name of his daughter within his party. Growing divisions within Brazil's largest party Despite divisions within the PMDB, Brazil's largest party, there are pressures, both within the party and outside it, to form alliances with Serra or the Sarneys. Ever since Itamar Franco, ex-president and current governor of Minas Gerais, rejoined the PMDB ranks, division has been growing between those in the party who support the governing coalition and those who take a more oppositionist stance along the lines of Franco. Party leaders who are allies of President Cardoso are doing all they can to keep Franco from winning the party primary election. Their latest move was to reduce the number of delegates eligible to vote in the party primary to 4,000 members, instead of 100,000 as defended by Franco. "Part of the PMDB, people who unfortunately direct the party that I helped to found at a time when it was difficult to speak of democracy, want to block city councilmen and councilwomen from participating in party elections. Our name is on the ballot of the party elections. We will compete," Franco said. PT will hold party elections Even though Lula is the PT's de facto candidate, Brazil's largest opposition party will also hold primaries. "It is absurd to submit Lula, who has 36% of voter-preference support, to a primary just because of the capriciousness of one or two people," said Geraldo Magela, the PT's pre-candidate for the governorship of the Federal District. Party leaders respond that primaries form part of a democracy, and Sen. Eduardo Suplicy, former husband of Sao Paulo mayor Marta Suplicy, has been clamoring for a chance to launch his name nationwide. Another person wanting to run against Lula under the PT banner is Edmilson Rodrigues, the mayor of Belem, capital of the state of Para. As for coalitions, the PT has not been making overtures to other parties or presidential hopefuls, but party leaders do not rule out the possibility. "You can't have a government only made up of the PT or only the left," said PT president Jose Dirceu in an interview with Primeira Leitura magazine. Candidates advocate stronger state involvement in economy One shift in recent campaigning is a general movement away from strict adherence to neoliberal policies, mostly associated with Finance Minister Pedro Malan. Because of sluggish economic growth, growing external vulnerabilities, and an energy crisis--largely blamed on the government's refusal to invest in increased electricity generation--even candidates of the governing coalition are advocating positions that tend to coincide with those of the political left. Not only the policies backed by the PT but also some advocated by other candidates have market analysts worried. "Will the next government continue to produce primary surpluses in public finances?" asked Jane Eddy, managing director of Standard & Poor's for sovereign debt ratings for Latin America. Along with advocating a stronger role of the state in society, there has been a general movement toward the center, evident from both sides of the political spectrum. While Marta Suplicy is often called "PT lite," Roseana Sarney is sometimes referred to as "red PFL." "When I entered the PFL, they used to call me the person from the PFLdoB because of my ties to the PCdoB [Partido Comunista do Brasil], which comes from my involvement in the student movement," said Sarney. If she were to win the presidential election, however, the calls for a stronger government role in the economy could be short-lived. The PFL continues to defend Malan's policies, and Sarney's economic advisors say they support how the economy is being managed. Persistence of northeastern oligarchs and "patrimonial state" Two months ago, the Estado de Sao Paulo newspaper ran a special about the decline of the national political reach of the rural oligarchy based in the poorer states of Brazil's Northeast. The fall of political heavyweights Antonio Carlos Magalhaes and Jader Barbalho (see NotiSur, 2001-09-28) exemplified this change. But the rise of Roseana Sarney, from another elite family in the region, shows their staying power. Despite the economic and political reforms promulgated by President Cardoso, elite rule remains firmly entrenched. "The vestiges of the patrimonial order remain firmly in place in Brazil. It will take some years before it is successfully removed," said Riodan Roett, a political scientist and Brazilianist. "The public sector and the political elite still work within that frame of reference." Roett used the term "patrimonial state" to describe how the Brazilian political elite uses state power to expand their dominance over the rest of the country through mechanisms that include handing out contracts to political allies in the business sector and giving jobs and other benefits to supporters. Roett doubts that the PT will come to power next year and believes that some kind of PFL-PSDB-PMDB coalition will win again. Besides Lula's rejection rating, which roughly equals his approval rating, those in power continue to control the purse strings and have closer ties to Brazil's media moguls. Nizan Guanas, Cardoso's chief public-relations consultant, said the government's candidate is going to exploit as much as possible the "fear of the unknown," by citing recent terrorist attacks in the US and economic crises affecting the world. In the end, Sarney's rise and the likelihood that the PFL will return to power either with a candidate for president or vice president, means that the party, through its rural oligarchs, will continue the involvement in ruling Brazil they have had for the past 500 years. And, given their past record, significant social or economic change will remain elusive. ********************* VENEZUELA ********************* VENEZUELA: UNION CANDIDATE BACKED BY PRESIDENT HUGO CHAVEZ LOSES ELECTION Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez observed the third anniversary of his election while facing defeat in a recent labor election, a national strike called by Venezuela's business and labor sectors, opposition street protests, and growing complaints that he has yet to respond to the needs of the country's poor majority. Since his election Dec. 6, 1999, Chavez has radically transformed the political system and maintained strong public support. But opinion polls indicate that Venezuelans are still waiting for the president's "peaceful revolution" to improve their lives. The government's inability to make good its public promises to tackle violent crime, widespread poverty, and unemployment is clearly frustrating and disappointing to many ordinary citizens. "What Chavez has been losing is the benefit of the doubt...people want jobs, safety on the streets, and obviously they judge the government very badly on both," said Luis Vicente Leon of the private polling company Datanalisis. Labor elections bring Chavez a notable defeat Recent labor elections saw Aristobulo Isturiz, the candidate backed by Chavez, lose to opposition candidate Carlos Ortega. The elections were to choose the 17-member Executive Committee for the Confederacion de Trabajadores de Venezuela (CTV) and the leaders of the unions in each of the country's 23 states. Ortega, a strong critic of the government who led a successful four-day oil strike for higher pay last year, took 57% of the votes. Isturiz obtained 16%, while Alfredo Ramos received 11% and two other candidates took less than 10% each. Ortega's campaign called for "preventing the CTV from becoming a union that is submissive to the government-boss." But following the election, Ortega said the CTV would not become a vehicle for the opposition to destabilize Chavez's government. "The president can relax," said Ortega. "It will not be the CTV that fills the void of opposition to the government. We will not be an appendix of any party. We will act in defense of workers and their families." Chavez decrees set off protests On Nov. 13, Chavez announced the completion of a package of laws aimed at stimulating the economy, laws he was granted special authority to enact without parliamentary debate. Chavez's opponents protested the measures, saying the government had failed to consult before enacting them. But Chavez insisted that all the laws had been widely discussed among "lawyers, economists, social activists, and campesinos." Among the most contentious pieces of legislation was a law that would allow a government agency to expropriate land it deems to be unproductive (see NotiSur, 2001-09-14). The land law aims to eliminate large, idle private rural estates and distribute the land to poor campesinos. Chavez defended the law as the only way to avoid civil war in Venezuela, which has one of the most uneven land distributions in the Western Hemisphere, with 1% of the population owning more than 60% of the arable land. Chavez said large landholders "are opposed to the interests of the majority of Venezuelans." A new Hydrocarbons Law nearly doubles royalty payments and gives majority control of projects to the government. Under the law, state-owned oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA) must hold a minimum 51% stake in all future joint-venture projects involving exploration, exploitation, transportation, and delivery. The law raises royalty rates from 16.7% to 30%. Venezuela provides 15% of US oil imports and has the largest proven reserves outside the Middle East. Government officials say the law will increase much-needed revenues and unify a series of unwieldy oil laws that go back nearly 60 years. But some analysts say the law may slow oil industry expansion plans and could lead foreign multinationals to look for projects in other countries. Those who helped draft the law say foreign companies will always be attracted by Venezuela's offerings, which include 77 billion barrels of proven oil reserves and perhaps hundreds of billions of barrels of heavy oil. Government officials also say critics of the law, like Venezuela's business groups, are motivated by their hatred of Chavez. "We have a national policy for the development of the economy," said Tarek William Saab, chairman of the foreign relations committee of the Asamblea Nacional. "And that is to confront the neoliberal system, where everything is in the name of private capital, and nothing is for the country." Business owners call strike Venezuela's most powerful business association, Fedecamaras, called for a 12-hour work shutdown on Dec. 10 to protest the government's failure to consult with the private sector on the 49 new economic laws. Business and labor leaders are demanding that Chavez abolish some of the laws or at least that the laws be debated and possibly amended in the Chavez-controlled Asamblea Nacional. The CTV said it would support the work stoppage. Both Fedecamaras and the CTV, which complain that the president has ignored their grievances, say their aim is not to "destabilize the government" with their protests. Fedecamaras president Pedro Carmona called the laws to regulate the petroleum sector and land ownership statist and interventionist, and said they would scare away investors. Carmona said there was widespread support for the planned stoppage. "Everything indicates it will go ahead unless the government is willing to compromise," he said. Chavez condemned the strike as political intrigue and said his revolution would not be blackmailed. He said Fedecamaras represented only wealthy business elites and insisted the laws would benefit the poor majority of Venezuela's 24 million people. "This has a strong political component," Chavez said of the strike, adding that Fedecamaras was allied with unions run by opposition party Accion Democratica (AD). Using a more conciliatory tone toward business leaders on Dec. 5, Chavez said he would not object if Congress amended some of the more contentious laws. "The government that I preside over not only will not oppose that, we will encourage any effort to that end," Chavez said in a speech to owners of small businesses. Chavez encouraged Venezuelans to submit their alternatives to Congress. Congress president Willian Lara said the legislature could hold special sessions during the holidays to discuss the laws. [Sources: CNN, 11/19/01; El Nuevo Herald (Miami), 11/17/01, 11/20/01; Reuters, 11/20/01, 11/21/01; Inter Press Service, 11/09/01, 11/22/01; The Financial Times (London), 11/24/01; Spanish news service EFE, 11/27/01; Clarin (Argentina), 12/01/01; Notimex, 12/02/01; La Opinion (Los Angeles), 12/03/01; The New York Times, 12/04/01; Associated Press, 11/13/01, 11/19/01, 11/20/01, 11/28/01, 12/05/01] ********************* PARAGUAY ********************* PARAGUAY: FUGITIVE GENERAL LINO OVIEDO MAY RETURN Brazil's highest court, the Supremo Tribunal Federal (STF), on Nov. 27 revoked Paraguayan Gen. Lino Oviedo's permission for house arrest, sending him back to a jail cell. Oviedo, who had applied for political asylum and was fighting extradition, now says he will return to Paraguay to face the charges against him. The STF had granted Oviedo house arrest in early July, allowing him to leave the Military Police jail cell that he had occupied since his arrest in June 2000. Until the new ruling, Oviedo had remained under house arrest in a cousin's home in the elegant Lago Sul neighborhood of Brasilia. The house is near the home of former Paraguayan dictator Alfredo Stroessner (1954-1989), who has been living in asylum in Brazil since he was overthrown with Oviedo's help in 1989. On Nov. 28, Paraguay's former minister of defense, Nelson Argana, said he was pleased that Oviedo had been returned to a military prison. Argana, son of assassinated former Vice President Luis Maria Argana, said Oviedo would be better "safeguarded" in a prison. Oviedo is accused of being the intellectual author of Argana's assassination. Oviedo was captured in June 2000 in Foz de Iguazu, across the river from Paraguay's Ciudad del Este (see NotiSur, 2000-06-16). He was taken to Brasilia and has since waged a legal battle for Brazil to grant him political asylum and deny the Paraguayan government's request for extradition. He has insisted that he would not receive a fair trial in Paraguay and that his life would be in danger. Oviedo's stormy history In 1998, a military court in Paraguay found Oviedo guilty of plotting a coup against then President Juan Carlos Wasmosy (1993-1998). He was sentenced to 10 years in prison, which forced him to withdraw as a presidential candidate (see NotiSur, 1998-02-06, 1998-05-01). He named his friend and political ally, Raul Cubas Grau, to take his place on the ticket. Three days after taking office, Cubas Grau commuted Oviedo's sentence, but that decree was annulled and the sentence upheld by the Corte Suprema de Justicia (CSJ). That set off a political crisis that culminated in the assassination of Vice President Argana on March 23, 1999 (see NotiSur, 1999-03-26). Cubas Grau, who was on the verge of being impeached for freeing Oviedo (see NotiSur, 1999-03-12), left the country following Argana's assassination, as did Oviedo (see NotiSur, 1999-04-09). Oviedo was accused of being the intellectual author of the assassination and of responsibility for the deaths of eight students killed during demonstrations following Argana's death. He was also accused of inciting an uprising in a Paraguayan military barracks in May 2000, which was suppressed (see NotiSur, 2000-05-26). Return would end lengthy process in Brazil On July 13, the Comite Nacional para os Refugiados (CONARE) in Brazil denied refugee status to Oviedo. "The request was rejected," a spokesperson for Brazil's Justice Ministry said, following the CONARE ruling. On July 26, Oviedo's lawyers appealed the CONARE decision to deny the general asylum. On Oct. 3, Justice Minister Jose Gregori upheld CONARE's rejection of Oviedo's petition for asylum. Both Gregori and CONARE found the arguments that Oviedo's life would be in danger if he returned to Paraguay to be without merit. That decision opened the way for the STF to resume considerations on Paraguay's extradition request, which was tabled in June. Brazilian law stipulates that until the Ministry of Justice rules on a request for asylum, consideration for extradition remains suspended in the STF. Walter Costa Pinto, one of Oviedo's lawyers, said he was confident the STF would deny the extradition request. "I feel the mood toward the general is favorable. The errors in this extradition request are scandalous, and it has been proved that the general is being politically persecuted." Costa Pinto said the case against Oviedo was weak, with eight of nine people accused of involvement in Argana's death already freed for lack of evidence. On Oct. 9, Oviedo's lawyers filed a new appeal to block the general's extradition. Lawyer Paulo Afonso Martins de Oliveira said the motion requested that Oviedo be questioned by the Ministry of Justice. "The Ministry of Justice has not respected the law, which is clear and determines that the ruling on the asylum request must follow an interview with the person requesting asylum," said the lawyer. Oviedo says he will return to Paraguay Lawyer Carlos Galeano Perrone, coordinator of Oviedo's faction of the governing Asociacion Nacional Republicana (ANR, Partido Colorado), said the STF decision to return Oviedo to jail was a step toward Oviedo's "imminent return" to Paraguay. He said that, after the decision, Oviedo asked his Brazilian lawyers to drop all legal efforts to allow him to remain in Brazil. "Oviedo will return in any event," said Galeano Perrone, even if the STF rejects the Paraguayan government's extradition request. Galeano Perrone said he was confident Oviedo would be exonerated from the charges connected to Argana's assassination and also that his 10-year sentence would be overturned. He said he expected Oviedo to be back in Paraguay before Christmas and after the new year to begin a political campaign aimed at the 2003 presidential elections. On Nov. 29, Oviedo said in a radio interview broadcast in Paraguay that he was preparing to return. "They can get the jail ready," he said, adding that he would return even if Brazil denies Paraguay's request for extradition. "I made the decision [to withdraw the request for asylum] to remove any obstacles that could impede a decision on extradition," said Oviedo. Paraguayan Attorney General Oscar Latorre said on Nov. 30 that Oviedo might get out of serving the 10-year sentence for the coup attempt if Brazil grants extradition. Oviedo "can only be tried on the charges for which Paraguay has requested his extradition," said Latorre, adding that those charges are the assassination of Argana and the deaths of the students. But Raul Sapena Brugada, president of the CSJ in Paraguay, said on Dec. 3 that Oviedo could not avoid serving the 10-year sentence. "The sentence cannot be challenged or modified by any appeal for review, reconsideration, or even reversal, since it has been confirmed by the CSJ," said the judge, who added that no legal loophole would allow Oviedo to escape the prior sentence and only confront the later charges. [Source: Reuters, 07/13/01; Notimex, 10/04/01; 10/09/01, 10/10/01, 11/28/01, 11/29/01; Spanish news service EFE, 07/26/01; 10/03/01, 10/09/01, 11/28-30/01, 12/03/01] ================================================================= NY Transfer News Collective * A Service of Blythe Systems Since 1985 - Information for the Rest of Us 339 Lafayette St., New York, NY 10012 http://www.blythe.org e-mail: nyt@blythe.org ================================================================= pvtsa-12.08.01-09:37:52-28763